![]() that, if realized, would tend to lift commodity prices and weaken the value of the dollar," he says. " The forecast looks for a bit stronger growth in the global economy and in the U.S. ![]() Domestic producer prices and core producer prices have also slowed.įeroli believes a reversal of these trends will push inflation higher in 2014. And the resulting softening of commodity prices and strengthening of the dollar resulted in a sharp deceleration of overall import prices and the price of imported consumer goods. Global real GDP growth slowed to an estimated 2.3% in 2013, below trend and the weakest growth since 2009. ![]() And it appears that soft global growth accounts for a lot of the slowing. The slowing in core inflation over the past year has been concentrated in goods prices. These price and cost measures have followed examples of behavior in other countries facing persistently slack conditions, and become sticky at inflation below 2%. The Employment Cost Index, the most comprehensive measure of total labor cost per hour, has been running close to its current 1.9%oya pace for the past three years. And increases in hourly labor cost have been stable. Core services inflation, (a large majority of the core price measure) has moderated only fractionally over the past year. It often indicates a user profile.Ī little deeper look into the data suggests that the decline in inflation is not broad-based. Account icon An icon in the shape of a person's head and shoulders.
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